Monday, September 1, 2014

Investing In The Ebola Vaccine

Ebola is one of the most deadly viral diseases with a fatality rate of 50-90 percent.  There are five strains of Ebola (Reston, Sudan, Tai Forest, Bundibugyo and Zaire) as well as Marburg virus that are classified as members of a family of negative stranded RNA viruses, the Filoviridae.  The Sudanese Ebola Outbreaks of 1976 and 1979 which struck two months before the Zairean Ebola Epidemic of 1976 did not receive international attention therefore the first case was attributed to Zaire.  The first identified case of Ebola was on August 1976 in a small village in northern Democratic Republic of the Congo back then known as Zaire.  In medical encyclopedias you can see that the first case is actually found in the southern Sudanese town of Nzara a storekeeper in a cotton factory began hemorrhaging and went into shock he died on July 6, 1976.  

It is not entirely known by the medical community how Ebola is spread.  Ebola is believed to be transmitted by coming in contact with an infected animal's body fluids.  The virus has been shown to travel without contact from pigs to primates.  Human-to-human transmission can occur with direct contact with blood or bodily fluids from an infected person.  An interesting fact from the Zairean Ebola Epidemic of 1976 was that a young lady died from Ebola in 1977 in Tandala, Zaire about 200 miles away from the outbreak she had never been in contact with anyone from the 1976 epidemic.  If you study all Ebola epidemics dating back to 1976 you can see that there still remain many unanswered questions.  In the Zaire Ebola Epidemic of 1995 the strain was almost identical to the 1976 strain yet studies showed that the 1995 strain was capable of infecting through normal skin contact, coughing as well as through bodily fluids.  

The first human trial for an investigational Ebola vaccine is set to begin this week.  At this point Ebola poses a threat to the world aggressive action is necessary.  The NIH is developing the vaccine with pharmaceutical giant GlaxoSmithKline (GSK).  If successful it will take until late 2015 for the vaccine to be administered to a limited number of health workers.  There are other companies also offering their vaccine to help with the outbreak one of which has already received $140 million from the Department of Defense: Tekmira Pharmaceuticals (TKMR).  Tekmira and its antiviral product TKM-Ebola is currently in Phase I of the clinical trial process.  

Two weeks ago I entered a TKMR trade at $20.20 the order did not fill completely only 300 shares were bought leaving me with 700 shares outstanding.  At this point I had to make a quick decision whether to cancel the remaining 700 shares, wait or modify the price.  The stock rose to $20.26 while I was holding 300 shares I could have sold them yet I chose to wait for the price to drop to $20.20 to buy the remaining 700 shares at 1:38pm.  The stock then went straight to $20.31 allowing me to exit. After weighting the amount of risk that Tekmira brings I think I will evade it just because if I decided to hold on to it for the long run it could take years to make my money back.  The company is working on several products yet they are all in the early stages and the clinical trial process is a very lengthy one assuming all goes well. 



Tekmira Day Trade $110 in 5 min





Friday, August 8, 2014

Winning The Lottery

I am not a gambler but I do like the idea of winning $115,000,000 which is the current jackpot for the Mega Millions Lottery.  I am aware that the odds of winning the top prize is 1 in 258,890,850.  In fact there is a formula that tells you what your ticket is worth and when it's best to buy yourself a ticket.
You multiply 1/258,890,850(odds of winning) X  $115,000,000(jackpot)/1 = 0.44 X $1(ticket price) = $0.44 so if I buy a ticket today my $1 ticket is worth about 44 cents.  When the jackpot rises to $259 million and above the value of your ticket is actually higher than $1 which makes this a better time to buy a ticket if you play regularly.  With that said I am too busy to play but occasionally I do play for fun and I try to find creative ways to do so.

I wrote a computer program a few years ago using Python I tried it out a few times but then forgot about it I did match 2 numbers the first time I used it.  I recently decided to take a look at the program and update it using a newer version this new code will pick random numbers for me similar to the quick pick option at the store or the random number generator on the website.  I created the program as a fun way to play the lotto I wouldn't want to play any other way.  Technically the program could pick the right numbers to make me a winner but the program will not give me a higher probability of winning compared to any other method that others use.


Step 1 - Run the program I created and write down the numbers that appear below



Step 2 - Bubble in the numbers on the NY Mega Millions Lottery Slip



Saturday, August 2, 2014

Learn To Think Outside The Box

Growing up in NYC I did what most people would consider a sure way to success: school and work.   Throughout the years I received the same type of information all others in my class got and it all led to the same conclusion get a 9-5 job with good benefits.

I always thought about earning money by the hour, the day, the week and then by the year.  It wasn't until I started reading, reaching out to people and attending conferences that I learned how to think differently.  I learned that stock trading can be very rewarding.  I once saw a guy make $200 in 1 minute a concept I did not think possible.  It was an unknown unknown.  I then tried to imitate it and eventually got it right.  It changed my way of thinking I now think of making money by the second, minute then by the hour.  I consider an hour a lifetime in regards to making money.  Once you learn this and get it right you can never go back, you see life and time in a different way.  It all happened by thinking outside the box.  I did what society considers right I went to school and got a job yet neither gave me all the information I needed and wanted.

I can read about people who have lost money but it is far more educational to meet the man that actually lost $80,000.  I learned how to make money and evade losses but also that it can be made by the second or minute without so much risk meaning not only stock trading can give you that type of money there are other ways.  

Increased risk will give you a higher probability of potential reward but excessive risk will most likely end in a negative reward outcome.

A 4 minute Twitter (TWTR) Trade 1000 shares = $110 gain